1、From the long-term perspective
the LED industry is driven by Heitz's law. That is to say, every 10 years, the output lumen of LED will be increased by 20 times, and the cost of LED will be reduced to 1/10 of the existing price. Driven by Heitz's law, the cost of single-chip LED is decreasing, and the brightness is rising. The application of long-term LED industry is penetrating. However, from the point of view of 3-5 years as a time node, LED shows a more obvious periodicity, and the prosperity of the industry is determined by the game between supply and demand. Recalling from 2009 to now, the industry of LED chips takes about four years as a cycle, and the profitability level of the industry is closely related to the trend of inventory and LED index in each cycle. Since 2018, the LED market has entered the downward cycle again. At present, Mini LED technology and supply chain are maturing, which is expected to become a new growth momentum to promote the market recovery step by step.
2、Second, the high-density LED industry chain continues to mature
Small spacing shows a sustained boom, and lower costs are expected to boost high market growth. Since 2015, LED small spacing display has become an important factor to promote the recovery of industry prosperity, and there is still a large space for continuous penetration in the future special display and commercial display market. Compared with traditional LED, small spacing products have obvious advantages in brightness, color, reliability and super large size display. They have formed a fast replacement for LCD and DLP splicing screen in professional display market, and the current penetration rate is close to 20%. Intelligent street lamp is also expected to become another important product application direction of small spacing LED display in 5G generation. It integrates 12 functions of 5G small base station, security monitoring, charging pile, environmental monitoring, voice broadcasting, intelligent dimming and so on. It has a market space of over 100 billion yuan, far exceeding the current small spacing traditional dedicated and commercial display market.
3. Mini/MicroLED Expected New Trends
The LCD display with Mini LED backlight technology is superior to the current LCD display in brightness, contrast, color restoration and energy saving. It can even compete with AMOLED and control the production cost. Technological advances have led to the upgrade of MiniLED as a small spacing display product. Mini LED, as an extension of small spacing technology, is expected to usher in the application penetration in the field of commercial and household display. The breakthrough of four in one packaging technology is the key to the landing of MiniLED products. COB is the core packaging technology for Mini/MicroLED products, and it has the most
application prospects in the future. MicroLED also has a wide application prospect in consumer electronics and wearable products. The application of microLED display can achieve low energy consumption or high brightness display design, because of the self-luminous display characteristics, with a simple structure with almost no light-consuming elements.
MiniLED is the most promising product breakthrough in backlight and display. MiniLED can use the existing LCD technology foundation, combined with the same mature RGB LED technology, develop a new generation of backlight design panel. From the performance point of view, whether it is the quality, thickness, cost or profile cutting, surface display, can be comparable to AMOLED TV panel, and is expected to become a potential competitive solution for large-scale AMOLED display. The model estimates that the total demand of MiniLED in the next three years will reach 107 million pieces, and the market demand growth space is enormous. Huawei is about to release a glorious smart screen. Mini LED backlight is also expected to be used in some models, driving a new trend in the application of Mini LED backlight in 5G large screen display.